How to Backtest a Strategy in Forex (Backtesting Guide ...

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Trading economic news

The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases.
This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.

How economic news is released

First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020.
In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots.
No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners.
Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup.
Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price!
Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!

How the news affects forex markets

Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent.
It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast.
Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators.
Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market.
The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US.
Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com.
Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles.
I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.
USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present)
USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present)
The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all.
For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected.
The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up.
I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.

Backtesting

So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report.
Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters.
Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk.
Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not.
Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one.
The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest.
Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered.
I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized.
For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade.
Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot.
Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from.
Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade.
That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.

Make it real

If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day.
Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved.
Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world.
I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
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Best stock bot company

Our forex ones costs $2000 for the license annually. The $2000 one is our elite one that has a 96% win rate with high profit potential weekly. The Crypto can be added on for $500 more a year. You can do forex for $250 a month and add crypto for an additional $50 a month. The new super bot is more expensive at $2500 but it's pulling in 10% a day on average. The crypto bot it’s self is $1200 for a license.
They all work incredibly well and the forex ones can be upgraded up if you start lower.
Customizations are plenty and we have a ton of safety settings built in for you to choose risk tolerance. Backtesting shows 5k turning into 22k in three months and we expect to get about 40% monthly on a bad month and closer to, 80-120% on a good month.
We have a company that manages a VPS so it runs super fast and is constantly evaluating data. We include the VPS service in your membership. But we help you every step of the way and do remote sessions to check in with you and see how its going. We have sold to 41 people in last 3 weeks and just started. Members saw huge profits after an update we made today so we are rolling here.
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How To Choose An Automated Trading Platform?

How To Choose An Automated Trading Platform?
When going for an automated trading platform it is very important to look for some important features before you decide on the automated trading platform you want to trade on. Different automated trading platforms offer different services which have their own pros and cons and might suit certain strategies and better than the others.
We have discussed important features that you should consider while choosing an algorithmic trading platform.

Select The Right Automated Trading Platform


https://preview.redd.it/gbx58zrdabu41.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ee3a23bc4f55a88437a8002fedfdf73390ece9b

Backtesting

A backtest is a historical simulation of an algorithmic trading strategy to see how it would’ve performed on the data in the past. Backtest results usually show the strategy’s performance in terms of profits and losses and some popular performance statistics like Sharpe Ratio or Information ratio which help to quantify the strategy’s return on risk. Hence a good backtesting software can be a great plus for an automated trading platform. Backtests can be divided into two categories ‘Research Backtesters’ and ‘Event-Driven Backtesting’.

Programming Languages

Choice of programming language is very important while deciding which platform to use for automating your trading strategy. Different languages have different pros and cons. Most commonly used programming languages used for algorithmic trading are C++, C#, Java, R, Python, and MATLAB. You can refer to one of our recent posts on top backtesting platforms where we’ve discussed popular programming languages.

Data

Different automated trading platforms provide access to/support trading/backtesting of certain securities only; some provide specific access to data feeds like Bloomberg and Thomson/Reuters. For instance, there are platforms dedicated to Forex trading or Equities trading only that too in specific markets. You need to make sure what the automated trading platform offers and then decide based on your needs. The frequency of data that you would need should also be taken into account. Some strategies would require daily EOD data while some other strategies might require intraday trading data.

Web-Based Platform

Some automated trading platforms also provide the web-based platform for online trading and backtesting which makes it easy and convenient to access your trading platform anywhere. The web-based platform may have less number of features compared to the desktop trading platform.

https://preview.redd.it/bwmmw9efabu41.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=c16e4008e52cf4cdd175241e8698b1fca09b43f4

Complexity

Different automated stock trading platforms vary in ease of use. Some platforms may require actual programming expertise while others may not. Most platforms provide a demo version which can help you decide what fits your comfort level. The complexity of platforms can be different for different assets traded, and one should check the different tools & features available to analyze the specific asset class.

Number of Strategies Allowed

Sometimes there might be restrictions on the number of long or short strategies loaded on a particular account and you might need extra accounts for more strategies. You should also check if you have enough memory on your computer for multiple accounts if required as it can be memory intensive. Some platforms also offer their own trading strategies as add-ons which can be subscribed by paying a periodic or one-time fee.

Commissions/Costs

Trading commissions can impact your profits to a great extent. Carefully choose the plan which suits your trading requirements. Also, check if there are initial and/or monthly fees and what is offered against it to make sure you are only paying for services which you actually want.

Technical Support & Customer Service

Automated Trading platforms are expected to have an extremely high “up-time” and rarely go out of service. Before choosing the platform you should check the history of outages and if there have been any other issues in the past, how soon were those resolved, and how knowledgeable and helpful was the support team.
submitted by FmzQuant to CryptoCurrencyTrading [link] [comments]

Beginning Algo Programming

What advice would you recommend for someone who is interested in programming algorithms? Is learning algo programming a doable achievement in under a year?
submitted by RestandPlay to algotrading [link] [comments]

Start 2: 8th Failed Attempt and going for the 9th

In my previous post, I started my ventures to make some money. So here's my progress:

Income Stream No. 1: Forex

The system failed and kinda blew my $100 deposit on it. What I've learnt is that:
Did more reading and found that there's a better way to test, build and test again before I can begin selling signal subscription in the MQL market. My next step is to try and implement a Kumo Breakout with IKH. I'm keeping my strategies as simple as possible while the success metrics is that its self-sustainable on its own with less of my own intervention. I can simply test without having to go with a broker first to get my strategy working with quality data (i.e. without renting a VPS and downloading all of the data to my machine for backtesting). By utilising tickstory.com, I can just download all of the Dukascopy tick data and then back test from there. Of course, this is going to be different if I were to trade with a broker account because spreads. Will adjust later but for now, I have to focus on building my signal service.

Income Stream No. 2: Amazon

I have to cancel this and won't follow-through. Instead I'm moving towards Income Stream No. 3 instead. Problem was that I didn't find the time to contact suppliers and ask for rebranding or customization on interested items that I would to sell and resell on Amazon FBA. Family came first so... yeah...

Income Stream No. 3: SaaS

Good news, it's almost ready. Building a multi-tenant app with Django was very tasking on my time especially with the setup. I've had bumps in the past month with my machine not being able to load the configuration set up for my Postgresql Database. I was trying to build a High Availability Cluster set up but it took too long, so I'll have to build that part later. Deploying on AWS is harder than I thought though. Damn security groups, couldn't load properly. I guess I have to hit up Youtube tutorials on AWS for being such a noob.
Bad news, is whats pending at the moment an activated Stripe account. I'm still waiting for my LLC to go through its approval process (registered with a Delaware agent) and should come at any time soon. Once I have an LLC registered, I should be able to apply for an EIN at the same time. So until that happens, I'll need to quickly build my SaaS app with a test Stripe account until it's MVP ready.

In the End

If at first you don't succeed, try again after you learn your mistake(s). Even if it means blowing your deposit and sacrificing sleep!
submitted by nosepickingexpert to juststart [link] [comments]

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Based on selected trading idea, the AI engine develops trading strategies with balanced profit/risk level. A user chooses a strategy, evaluate it with backtesting, and then just follow the accepted trading strategy. With this analytical engine, users can create personal investment portfolio.
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1Broker + TradingView beginner automation (plus question)

[Sorry for the long post] So I've looked around this sub and I see a lot of high level or theoretical Algo discussions which I can appreciate but I'm kind of lost when it comes to practical applications and I don't even know if any service even exists that can meet my needs.
Currently, I have a strategy that I think is a little profitable with 1 minute data intraday swing trading on USDJPY, it's very simple and written in Pinescript. I plug the pinescript into a 1 min chart on Tradingview and it spits out alerts for my trades. The alerts are picked up by a chrome addon called Autoview which sends the orders to 1broker using a special alert API. I hate it for many reasons: - Chrome with tradingview and Autoview must be running and checked frequently for glitches (sometimes alerts stop firing randomly) - Tradingview alerts are not meant to be used as orders so I lose any semblance of order management. Basically it fires alerts/orders for every entry point regardless of my current balance or positions. - Pinescript sucks. - 1broker uses bitcoins as currency, I like bitcoins but don't fully trust putting thousands of dollars into them when it could be rendered obsolete at any time without warning.
So the reason I use it is because it meets all my needs. I'm just starting out and I have a fairly large income via my job (US) but it would take me at more than a year to save up 25k for a legit daytrading account. So I need to find a broker + automation combo with the following: - hedging within the same fund (is this not allowed in the US?) - can make unlimited day trades without needing $25,000 USD, low minimum account size - low or no fees - supports 24/5 forex or E-mini trading (options not required) - API for automation with somewhat low coding requirements. I am familiar with python but by no means am I an expert. I like looking at tradingview charts and backtest instantaneously via graphical interface but I realize this is probably not very common.
I've spent a lot of time on both Quantopian and Quantconnect but neither of them can do intraday trading very well if at all. They are primarily focused on fundamental trading and I'm more into technical trading. I tried looking into Ninjatrader, metatrader, whatever but I found them very expensive, unnecessarily complicated, and beholden to the US's stupid trading laws.
TL;DR - Can anyone tell me exactly how to implement my simple automated intraday FX strategy using a simple interface that doesn't require me to have a $25,000 US brokerage account and software that costs 1000's of dollars?
P.S. If any other beginners are in the same situation as me you should look into 1broker.com + TradingView + Autoview, it's pretty sweet given the limitations it's working with.
submitted by Redcrux to algotrading [link] [comments]

The reality of the trading education industry, including the penny stocks market.

Nearly everyone online that offers a so called trading system is doing so because they can't actually make money themselves in the market. The few people that do offer a legitimate system don't disclose their entire system because then they can't sell their useless alert services to their clueless subscribers. I only know of one person that does in fact offer there entire system and it's actually profitable.
There's a lot of fools online that hate their miserable jobs and are looking for a get rich quick scheme and therefore will buy these stock guru's bs. It's pretty sad actually. I've been a full time trader since 2002. The reality is trading is not easy to learn unless you have a real trader to guide you and that's very hard to find. It took me 2 years and thousands of hours of studying to do it on my own. I bought hundreds of programs and I've read over 500 books on trading. I tried to follow other people but learned the hard way that this is not possible (despite what people think).
The only way to be successful is to learn to be 100% self sufficient. There's no such thing as earning as you learn either. Most people aren't willing to put in the time, don't have enough risk capital (they mistakenly think they can start with $300 and turn it into millions), are just plain lazy, or straight up gamblers. This is why the majority of people fail and think the stock market is a scam because it is rigged for the great majority of the general public.
Profitable trading not only requires a technical trading system, but it also requires strict money management, and most importantly learning to control ones emotions. Most people will never be able to learn the skills needed to succeed in the market because it requires extreme discipline and dedication which few people truly have.
Binary options are basically a scam. They are a lot like playing a casino like roulette game with terrible odds. Options in general are much more complex then individual stocks (because you aren't just picking a direction, but also how far and how fast a stock will move) and if you can't make money in a regular stocks you certainly aren't going to learn to trade a derivative like an option. All of these automated day trading robots for trading forex or futures (index and commodities) are also straight up scams. They were backtested with historical data but are curve fitted which means they won't perform in forward testing.
submitted by beatstockpromoters to pennystocks [link] [comments]

How To Backtest Your Trading Plan Backtesting a Trading Strategy Forex Trading with Python and Quantra  Free course in Forex Trading  Momentum Trading Strategy Review of MarketInOut: A Forex and Stocks Backtesting and Screening Tool Forex Historical Data: how to level up your Forex trading [3 types of the data revealed] Forex Tester: Leading backtesting software

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How To Backtest Your Trading Plan

Check out my gear on Kit: https://kit.com/ShaquanLopez Backtesting can be tedious, especially when you do not have a trading plan. in this video, I will sh... Skip navigation Sign in Forex Tester is available here: https://bit.ly/2R2lA8B _____ This brief video tells you how Forex Tester differs from other trading simulators and why it is an awesome solution for traders of any ... (free forex data available for online backtesting) ... Server Academy Recommended for you. 28:45. FOREX Harmonic Pattern Scanning Algorithm in Python: Introduction - Duration: 20:59 ... Forex historical data is a must for backtesting and trading. Forex data can be compared to fuel and software that uses this data is like an engine. Without high qualitative tick data suite, it is ... Forex Tester is available here: https://bit.ly/2R2lA8B This brief video tells you how Forex Tester differs from other trading simulators and why it is an awesome solution for traders of any level. For instance, when I tried to backtest a strategy against 10 years of previous data, I get a server error; the calculation cannot complete. Backtesting did work well when evaluating the past year ... Backtesting trading strategies for Forex, stocks and futures is very popular, but most people don't find success with it. There are very sound and logical reasons for that failure. Before you try ...

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